Can the Mariners Strike Gold in This Year's Draft with #3 Overall? Insights from Joe Doyle

The 2025 MLB Draft is right around the corner, and the Seattle Mariners find themselves in a remarkable position to continue their recent draft success. Over the past seven years, the Mariners have built a formidable core of talent through savvy selections and strategic trades. From Logan Gilbert and Cal Raleigh to George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, Seattle’s farm system has become a beacon of hope for the franchise’s future. Now, with the third overall pick in this year’s draft and the largest bonus pool of any team—over $17 million—the Mariners are poised to make a splash once again.

To break down the current state of the Mariners’ farm system, the rookies making an impact, and what the team might do with this year’s draft picks, I had the pleasure of speaking with Joe Doyle, founder of the Over-slot Podcast and an expert on MLB prospects. Here’s a deep dive into the Mariners' present and future prospects, draft strategy, and some intriguing local talents to watch.

The Mariners’ Recent Draft Success and Current Rookies

Seattle’s recent drafts have yielded a wealth of talent now contributing at the major league level. Since 2018, the Mariners have consistently found valuable players:

• Logan Gilbert (1st round, 2018)
• Cal Raleigh (3rd round, 2018)
• George Kirby (1st round, 2019)
• Emerson Hancock (1st round, 2020)
• Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo (4th and 6th rounds, 2021)
• Cole Young and Troy Taylor (1st and 12th rounds, 2022)
• Ben Williamson and Logan Evans (2nd and 12th rounds, 2023)

These players, among others, have helped stabilize and improve the Mariners’ roster. Notably, the Mariners’ farm system currently boasts nine prospects ranked in the top 100 across baseball, a testament to their drafting and development prowess.

Rookie Impact: Ben Williamson and Cole Young

Two rookies who have recently broken into the big leagues are Ben Williamson and Cole Young. While they may not be heralded as phenoms like Julio Rodríguez or Logan Gilbert, both have delivered exactly what the Mariners hoped for.

Joe Doyle: "Ben Williamson has stabilized third base with solid glove work, good defense, and situational awareness. He’s not going to hit a lot of homers but puts the ball in play and runs well. He’s exactly what the team wanted."

Cole Young, meanwhile, is showing steady progress at the plate and in the field. He’s making consistent contact, working long counts, and playing solid defense at second base. This kind of stability and consistency has been a breath of fresh air for Mariners fans accustomed to watching top prospects struggle upon reaching the majors.

Comparing Ben Williamson’s Defensive Upside

Fans have been excited about Williamson’s glove, sometimes comparing him to perennial Gold Glovers. However, Joe cautions that Williamson’s style is different:

Joe Doyle: "The guys like Nolan Arenado do it so smoothly and naturally. Williamson is a bit more frantic in his movements. He occasionally loses his footing, but he gets the job done with athleticism, arm strength, and situational awareness."

In other words, Williamson may not have the effortless grace of elite defenders but compensates with hustle and smart play, which has been invaluable for the Mariners this season.

Pitching Prospects on the Cusp

On the pitching side, Brandyn Garcia stands out as a left-handed reliever who could make an impact soon. He recently touched 100 mph and offers the Mariners a much-needed southpaw option in the bullpen. Hunter Cranton, a closer with electric stuff, is another promising arm expected to advance quickly if healthy.

However, the health of Teddy McGraw, who has suffered multiple arm injuries, remains a concern. Joe suggests that if McGraw shows dominance in the minors, Seattle might promote him to see what he can offer out of the bullpen, given his injury history and potential upside.

Mid-Level Prospects Making Waves

The Mariners have several prospects progressing well through the lower minors, including Lazaro Montes, Michael Arroyo, and Colt Emerson. Montes, in particular, has been impressive, hitting a home run basically every other day this year throughout High-A Everett and Double-A Arkansas. Joe emphasizes the importance of not rushing Montes, suggesting he remain in Arkansas through mid-2026 to fully develop against quality pitching.

Colt Emerson, still just 19 years old, has shown excellent athleticism and range at shortstop. His mobility and defensive skills appear even more advanced than Cole Young’s, giving him a strong chance to impact the big league club at SS in the near future.

Michael Arroyo has also been a standout at second base, with a bat that could make him a valuable trade chip given the Mariners’ depth at infield positions. Joe notes that Arroyo’s hitting prowess might make him an attractive asset to acquire other pieces the team needs.

Harry Ford: Catching a Glimpse of the Future

Harry Ford, a catcher currently in Triple-A Tacoma, is another intriguing piece. While Mitch Garver’s contract ends after this season, Ford could either serve as a backup catcher in 2026 or be used as a trade chip. Joe’s take is to keep Ford in Tacoma through the next month to showcase his bat and defensive skills before making a decision closer to the trade deadline.

Seattle’s Farm System: Pitching vs. Batting Balance

The Mariners’ farm system currently features a wave of bats progressing through the ranks, while pitching prospects are somewhat less abundant. Two pitchers, Jurrangelo Cijntje and Ryan Sloan, stand out with high ceilings, especially Sloan, who looks like a future ace with impressive size and electric stuff.

Despite these talents, Seattle might benefit from targeting more starting pitching in this year’s draft, especially in rounds two through five. Historically, the Mariners have excelled at identifying and developing talent in these middle rounds, making it a strategic focus area.

2025 MLB Draft Strategy: What to Expect with the #3 Overall Pick

Seattle’s recent lottery jump from the 15th to the 3rd overall pick was a major win, especially given their slim odds of just 0.53% (to get the #1 overall pick). Along with the third overall pick, the Mariners hold selections at 35, 57, 91, and 122, plus a whopping $17 million bonus pool to allocate across 21 picks—the highest of any team.

The Power of the Bonus Pool

Joe explains the significance of this bonus pool in draft strategy:

Joe Doyle: "It’s not just about how many picks you have, but how much money you can spend. With $17 million and the #3 pick, Seattle can strategically sign players by going underslot on some picks and overslot on others, especially to lure high school talent."

For example, the slot value for the third overall pick is around $9 million. The Mariners could offer just under that and still be competitive, saving money to spend on later round picks or to pursue players with higher signing demands.

Potential Targets at #3 Overall

There is no clear consensus within the Mariners’ organization about who they will pick at #3. Joe highlights several players still very much in play:

• Kade Anderson: A college pitcher many believe won’t fall past #3.
• Seth Hernandez: A player with strong support inside the Mariners’ scouting department.
• Liam Doyle and Jamie Arnold: College pitchers with upside.
• Aiva Arquette: A 6’5” college shortstop from OSU with huge raw power and exceptional defense.
• Ike Irish and Jojo Parker: Players considered safe bets to hit at the next level.

Joe notes that the Mariners may not decide until the morning of the draft, waiting to see who is selected by the Nationals and Angels ahead of them. This flexibility allows Seattle to tailor their choice based on availability and potential signability.

Is Ethan Holliday the Clear #1 Overall?

Contrary to popular belief, Joe does not see Ethan Holliday as a lock for the first overall pick. Holiday’s agent, Scott Boras, is known for demanding full slot value and rarely cutting deals, which could deter teams from selecting him first overall. Joe thinks teams might prefer college pitchers they can sign for less and then allocate saved funds to other picks.

Draft Depth and Strengths in 2025

This draft class is considered deep and balanced, with particular strength in college pitching and high school shortstops. Joe ranks nine high school shortstops in his top 20 prospects, including notable names like Xavier Neyens, Gavin Fien, and Ethan Holliday, who are listed as shortstops but may play 3B professionally.

On the pitching side, there are seven or eight college arms projected to go in the top 20 picks, making it a strong year for teams seeking pitching talent.

Local Prospects to Watch

Xavier Neyens – Mount Vernon, Washington

A third baseman from Mount Vernon, Neyens is a left-handed hitter with tremendous raw power. Joe compares him to Pedro Alvarez of the Pittsburgh Pirates, emphasizing his ability to hit for power and maintain good plate discipline. At 6’4” and over 210 pounds, Neyens is physically imposing and one of the best high school prospects to come out of Washington in recent years.

Kruz Schoolcraft – Left-Handed Pitcher

Another local talent, Kruz Schoolcraft, stands out as a 6’8”, 230-pound lefty with electric stuff. He reclassified to enter the draft early and has been clocked throwing as fast as 97 mph with a nasty split-finger. Schoolcraft committed to Tennessee but will likely need to be taken within the top 36 picks to sign, given the competitive NIL environment and Tennessee’s resources.

Slater de Brun – Left-Handed Hitting Outfielder

de Brun is known for his speed, fielding ability, and confident approach at the plate. Standing about 5’10” and 200 pounds, he profiles as a left fielder with excellent base-stealing potential. Joe praises his work ethic and competitive nature, making him a prospect to watch, especially in the Pacific Northwest region.

Aiva Arquette – Oregon State Shortstop

Standing 6’5” with a strong frame, Arquette is a rare blend of defensive prowess and raw power. Joe believes his defensive skills rival that of top Mariners prospect Felnin Celesten. However, there are questions about whether his size might eventually push him away from shortstop. His experience playing in the challenging weather conditions of the Pacific Northwest also adds to his appeal as a “homegrown” talent.

Joe Doyle’s Sleeper Pick

One deep sleeper Joe highlights is Cooper Flemming, a 6’3” shortstop from Aliso Niguel High School. At 190 pounds with a wiry frame, Flemming has consistently hit hard and projects well athletically. Joe would be thrilled if Seattle could land him with their 35th pick, especially given the Mariners’ interest in high school shortstops in the middle rounds.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for the Mariners’ Future

The Seattle Mariners enter the 2025 MLB Draft poised to continue their remarkable run of building through the draft. With a deep farm system boasting nine top 100 prospects and a massive $17 million bonus pool, the organization has flexibility and resources few teams can match. Whether they choose a college pitcher, a high school shortstop, or a power-hitting bat, the Mariners have the potential to add a cornerstone player who will shape the franchise for years to come.

As the draft approaches, the uncertainty and variety of opinions within the Mariners’ front office highlight the complexity of the decision ahead. Yet, the excitement is palpable among fans and experts alike, knowing that Seattle’s recent draft success has laid a strong foundation. With rookies like Ben Williamson and Cole Young providing stability today, and prospects like Lazaro Montes, Colt Emerson, and Michael Arroyo rising through the ranks, the future looks bright.

For Mariners fans, this draft could be the moment to strike gold once again and add another chapter to the team’s exciting rebuild.