Seattle Mariners Halfway Recap: An In-Depth Look with Gary Hill Jr.

The Seattle Mariners currently sit at 44-40, holding the third wild card spot in the American League. With the division leader Houston Astros six games ahead, the Mariners have experienced a rollercoaster first half of the 2025 MLB season. From scorching hot bats to inconsistent pitching performances, the team has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with moments of struggle. One player has stood out above all others — Cal Raleigh, affectionately known as "Big Dumper," who is on pace for a historic season.

In this comprehensive recap, we dive deep into the Mariners’ season so far, exploring the offense, pitching staff, bullpen, and prospects. We also discuss the upcoming trade deadline and what moves might shape Seattle’s playoff hopes. Insights from Mariners radio broadcaster Gary Hill Jr. provide expert perspective on the team’s strengths, weaknesses, and potential heading into the second half.

Mariners’ Season Overview: Hot Bats and Pitching Challenges

The Mariners’ 44-40 record reflects a team that has been hot and cold throughout the season. While they trail the Astros in the division, they remain competitive in the wild card race. A key factor has been their offense, which has been one of the best in baseball, especially in April & June. Connor notes that nine Mariners players posted above league-average production in weighted runs created during June, signaling a potent lineup.

Cal Raleigh has been the undeniable driving force behind Seattle’s offense. On pace for 63 home runs and 136 RBIs, he is threatening to rewrite the record books for catchers in MLB history. Yet, despite Raleigh’s MVP-caliber performance, the Mariners still find themselves just slightly above .500. This juxtaposition highlights how other areas of the roster, particularly pitching, have struggled to consistently support the offensive output.

Offense: Power and Production Beyond Cal Raleigh

The Mariners’ offense ranks fifth in weighted runs created plus (112 wRC+), indicating they’ve had ~12% more value at the plate than the league average. They are currently twelfth in runs scored and sixth in total home runs, showcasing their ability to hit for power. Additionally, Seattle ranks fourth in stolen bases, adding a dynamic element to their attack.

Beyond Cal Raleigh, players like Donovan Solano and Dominic Canzone have provided key contributions. Solano, who had an extremely slow start to the season, exploded in June with a 193 wRC+, driving in 13 runs on a recent road trip. Canzone’s improvement in average and reduced strikeouts have added punch to the middle and bottom of the lineup. Cole Young has also shown promise, batting over .300 during a recent stretch after a tough start to his big league career.

Gary Hill Jr. highlights how the lineup has found a "middle ground" in June between the explosive start in April and the struggles in May. This balanced offensive approach, combined with players getting on base ahead of Raleigh, creates more opportunities for run production. With J.P. Crawford’s high on-base percentage and Julio Rodríguez hitting the ball hard, the Mariners’ offense is positioned to keep rolling into the second half.

The Historic Cal Raleigh Season

Raleigh’s performance has been nothing short of historic. He is on pace to shatter the single-season home run record for catchers, currently held by Salvador Perez with 48 homers. Raleigh’s power is unique because he hits effectively from both sides of the plate — with a higher home run rate from the right side this year than the left. This switch-hitting prowess complicates opposing pitchers’ strategies and has led to Raleigh ranking second in intentional walks (10), tied with Shohei Ohtani and only behind Aaron Judge (18).

Adding to his offensive prowess, Raleigh has already surpassed Dan Wilson’s Mariners record for stolen bases by a catcher in Mariners franchise history, with nine steals so far this year. The possibility of a 50-home run, 20-steal season — a feat rarely seen among catchers — excites fans and analysts alike. Raleigh’s combination of power, speed, and on-base ability (.323 average from the right side) makes him a unique MVP candidate and the clear centerpiece of the Mariners’ lineup.

Pitching: Strengths, Struggles, and Key Performers

While the offense has flourished, pitching has been a mixed bag for Seattle. The staff ranks 15th in ERA at 3.9 and 20th in strikeouts per nine innings, indicating middle-of-the-pack performance overall. The starting rotation, in particular, has been inconsistent, ranking 20th in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) and 16th in ERA.

Rotation: The Importance of Consistency

Gary Hill Jr. emphasizes that the rotation is the Mariners' identity and will be critical to any playoff push. Injuries and underperformance have plagued the rotation, but two pitchers have stood out:

• Bryan Woo: The most reliable starter, Woo has thrown six or more innings in 16 consecutive starts, nearing the Mariners’ record set by Randy Johnson (20). His efficiency is remarkable, averaging just over 14 pitches per inning and rarely exceeding 100 pitches per game. Woo’s fastball(s), a deadly combination of four-seam and two-seam offerings, ranks in the 100th percentile for pitching-run-value. Gary considers Woo a top-10 American League starter and a legitimate All-Star candidate this year.
• Luis Castillo: Despite some ups and downs, Castillo has been a rock alongside Woo. Both pitchers have provided the Mariners with quality innings when others have struggled.

However, injuries to Bryce Miller, who was expected to take a significant step forward this season, have been a major setback. Miller is currently recovering from a bone spur and has resumed throwing, but his return timeline remains uncertain. Hill notes that Miller’s absence has been keenly felt given how dominant he was last season.

Bulldown: Overexposure and the Need for Depth

The bullpen has been a notable weak point, ranking 25th in fWAR among all MLB bullpens. While the back end of the bullpen has been solid — with arms Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier & others stepping up — the middle relief has struggled due to overuse and inconsistency. The lack of length from starters has forced the bullpen to cover more innings than ideal, leading to fatigue and suboptimal matchups.

Hill believes the key to improving bullpen performance lies in the rotation pitching deeper into games, which would reduce pressure on relievers. At the trade deadline, Seattle may target a "swing-and-miss" reliever to add strikeout ability to the middle innings rather than a big-name closer, who often demands a higher price.

The Trade Deadline: What Could the Mariners Do?

With the July 31st trade deadline approaching, many Mariners fans wonder if Seattle will be buyers or sellers. Currently, the team is juggling playing time among several bats who can play either first base, right field, or designated hitter. These include Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley, Jorge Polanco, Donovan Solano, and Mitch Garver, among others.

Adding Offensive Punch

Hill points out that the Mariners’ priority at the deadline will likely be acquiring a quality bat, with position flexibility secondary. The team needs to bolster its middle-of-the-order production to complement Cal Raleigh and extend the lineup’s depth. Depending on who is available, Seattle could look to add a first baseman, right fielder, third baseman, or DH-type hitter. The key will be offensive quality rather than a perfect positional fit.

Defensive Versatility and Prospects

On the infield, young players like Ben Williamson at third base and Cole Young at second base have impressed defensively and are expected to remain in the lineup. Williamson is second in the American League in putouts at third base, showcasing his defensive prowess comparable to Nolan Arenado’s style. The potential addition of someone like Eugenio Suárez could create lineup challenges, but Hill is confident the Mariners would find ways to fit quality bats into the roster without significantly disrupting defensive stability.

Pitching Additions

On the pitching side, the focus will likely be on adding bullpen depth with strikeout potential. Hill mentions that finding another left-handed reliever would be helpful, especially as their only lefty in the ‘pen in Gabe Speier has been heavily used. The availability of quality relievers depends on which teams decide to sell in the coming weeks, making the market uncertain.

Prospects on the Horizon

In terms of prospects, Brandyn Garcia is expected to make his MLB debut soon, potentially adding a second left-handed reliever to the bullpen. LHP Tayler Saucedo, working back from injury, could also contribute. However, most of the Mariners’ young talent is already in the big-league mix, with Williamson and Young playing regularly.

Outlook for the Second Half

Despite being six games behind the Astros, the Mariners are in a promising position for the second half of the season. The offense is firing on all cylinders, led by an MVP-caliber Cal Raleigh, and the rotation shows signs of stabilizing with Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo as anchors. The bullpen, while a concern, could improve with better starting pitching and a potential midseason acquisition.

Gary Hill Jr. believes the Mariners can put together a strong stretch of baseball and control their own destiny. The Astros’ dominance is a tough hurdle, but Seattle’s focus will be on maximizing their strengths and adding key pieces at the deadline.

Cal Raleigh’s Home Run Prediction

Both Hill and I agree that Raleigh’s home run total will surpass 50, with estimates ranging from 52 to 54 homers by season’s end. This would shatter the record for catchers and place Raleigh among the elite power hitters in baseball history. His ability to hit for power from both sides of the plate and his smart baserunning make him a unique and exciting player to watch.

Conclusion

The Seattle Mariners’ 2025 season has been a thrilling mix of highs and lows. With a potent offense led by Cal Raleigh’s historic production and an improving rotation anchored by Bryan Woo, Seattle remains a competitive team in the American League wild card race. Pitching depth, especially in the bullpen and the health of Bryce Miller, will be critical areas to watch as the season progresses.

The trade deadline looms as an important opportunity for the Mariners to add offensive firepower and bullpen depth. Flexibility in the lineup and a strong core of young players provide a solid foundation for a playoff push. While the Astros have set a high bar, Seattle has the pieces and potential to make a meaningful run in the second half.

As the Mariners head into the final stretch before the All-Star break and beyond, fans have plenty to be optimistic about. With exciting performances and strategic moves ahead, the 2025 Mariners season promises to deliver compelling baseball and perhaps, a memorable postseason run.